(by Robert Bradbury, IEET Fellow Milan Cirkovic, and IEET Board Chair George Dvorsky) We critically assess the prevailing currents in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), embodied in the notion of radio-searches for intentional artificial signals as envisioned by pioneers such as Frank Drake, Philip Morrison, Michael
Papagiannis and others. In particular, we emphasize (1) the necessity of integrating SETI into a wider astrobiological and future studies context, (2) the relevance of and lessons to be learnt from the anti-SETI arguments, in particular Fermi’s paradox, and (3) a need for complementary approach which we dub the Dysonian SETI. It is meaningfully derived from the inventive and visionary ideas of Freeman J. Dyson and his imaginative precursors, like Konstantin E. Tsiolkovsky, Olaf Stapledon, Nikola Tesla or John B. S. Haldane, who suggested macro-engineering projects as the focal points in the context of extrapolations about the future of humanity and, by analogy, other intelligent species. We consider practical ramifications of the Dysonian SETI and indicate some of the promising directions for future work.
(by Milan M Cirković, Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom) We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma-ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01460.x
“The world will someday end with fire or ice, but we await clarification as to the proximate causes. The menu of looming catastrophes is a long one, growing with our advancing knowledge of the universe and powers of self-immolation.”
We live on a small island. We have not yet ventured much beyond our immediate locale on this small island; even our own inconspicuous location still holds great mysteries for us. It seems that we find ourselves near the mountain peak on our island, but even that is uncertain. Only recently we have discovered that there are other islands besides our home scattered in a vast (possibly infinite) ocean. And the ocean is dead. It is not just devoid of fishes, algae or anything similar – it is empty of any conceivable form of life, it epitomizes the absence of life itself. But recently we have made our first attempt at mapping our surroundings and, in particular, sketching the outline of the ocean shores. In this, some of us bear similarities to the great adventurers of the European Age of Exploration in XV and XVI centuries; only in this case the explorers are not sea-captains and conquistadors, but theoretical physicists, cosmologists and philosophers.
Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic will each have an essay in the forthcoming collection Collapse Volume V: The Copernican Imperative, to be published on 15 December 2008
with co-authors Anders Sandberg and Jason G. Matheny
In the early morning of September 10, the Large Hadron Collider will be tested for the first time amid concern that the device could create a blackhole that will destroy the Earth. If you’re reading this afterwards, the Earth survived. Still, the event provides an opportunity to reflect on the possibility of human extinction. Since 1947, the Bulletin has maintained the Doomsday Clock, which “conveys how close humanity is to catastrophic destruction—the figurative midnight—and monitors the means humankind could use to obliterate itself.” The Clock may have been the first effort to educate the general public about the real possibility of human extinction.
I’m just recovering from the great time we had in Oxford last week talking about the different ways that human civilization might get wiped out, and what to do to prevent that.
It is argued that the “generic” evolutionary pathway of advanced technological civilizations is more likely to be optimization-driven than expansion-driven, in contrast to the prevailing opinions and attitudes in both future studies on one side and astrobiology/SETI studies on the other. Two toy-models of postbiological evolution of advanced technological civilizations are considered and several arguments supporting the optimization-driven, spatially compact model are briefly discussed. In addition, it is pointed out that there is a subtle contradiction in most of the tech-optimist and transhumanist accounts of future human/alien civilizations’ motivations in its postbiological stages. This may have important ramifications for both practical SETI projects and the future (of humanity) studies. Download the PDF
We hereby consider the problem of detectability of macro-engineering projects over interstellar distances, in the context of Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Freeman J. Dyson and his imaginative precursors, like Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Olaf Stapledon or John B. S. Haldane, suggested macro-engineering projects as focal points in the context of extrapolations about the future of humanity and, by analogy, other intelligent species in the Milky Way. We emphasize that the search for signposts of extraterrestrial macro-engineering projects is not an optional pursuit within the family of ongoing and planned SETI projects; inter alia, the failure of the orthodox SETI thus far clearly indicates this. Instead, this approach (for which we suggest a name of “Dysonian”) should be the front-line and mainstay of any cogent SETI strategy in future, being significantly more promising than searches for directed, intentional radio or microwave emissions. This is in accord with our improved astrophysical understanding of the structure and evolution of the Galactic Habitable Zone, as well as with the recent wake-up call of Steven J. Dick to investigate consequences of postbiological evolution for astrobiology in general and SETI programs in particular. The benefits this multidisciplinary approach may bear for astrobiologists, evolutionary theorists and macro-engineers are also briefly highlighted. Download the PDF
Abstract. One of the mainstays of the controversial “rare Earth” hypothesis is the “Goldilocks problem” regarding various parameters describing a habitable planet, partially involving the role of mass extinctions and other catastrophic processes in biological evolution. Usually, this is construed as support for the uniqueness of the Earth’s biosphere and intelligent human life. Here I argue that this is a misconstrual and that, on the contrary, observation-selection effects, when applied to catastrophic processes, make it very difficult for us to discern whether the terrestrial biosphere and evolutionary processes which created it are exceptional in the Milky Way or not. In particular, an anthropic overconfidence bias related to the temporal asymmetry of evolutionary processes appears when we try to straightforwardly estimate catastrophic risks from the past records on Earth. This agnosticism, in turn, supports the validity and significance of practical astrobiological and SETI research.
Classical arguments for skepticism regarding the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) are critically examined. It is suggested that the emerging class of “phase transition” astrobiological models can simultaneously account for all available astrophysical and biological evidence, explain several unresolved puzzle in Earth sciences, and rationally justify current and future SETI projects. In particular, the hypothesis of Annis that local gamma-ray bursts drive the astrobiological phase transition deserves to be further quantitatively elucidated. Some epistemological and ethical ramifications of such a model are briefly discussed. Download the PDF
Another partial solution of Fermi’s famous paradox is proposed, based on our increased understanding of geophysics, geo-engineering and climatology. It has been claimed in the recent astrobiological literature (for instance, in the recent controversial “rare Earth” theory of Ward and Brownlee), that geological activity of a terrestrial planet is an important precondition for the emergence of complex metazoan life forms. Technological civilizations arising on such planets will be, at some point of their histories or another, tempted to embark upon massive geo-engineering projects. If, for some reasons only very recently understood, large-scale geo-engineering is in fact much more dangerous than previously thought, the scenario in which at least some of the extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way self-destruct in this manner gains plausibility. In addition, we speculate on possible reasons, both physical and culturological, which could make such a threat even more pertinent on an average Galactic terrestrial planet than on Earth. Download the PDF
Cosmology seems extremely remote from everyday human practice and experience. It is usually taken for granted that cosmological data cannot rationally influence our beliefs about the fate of humanity—and possible other intelligent species—except perhaps in the extremely distant future, when the question of heat death (in an ever-expanding universe) becomes actual. Here, an attempt is made to show that it may become a practical issue much sooner, if an intelligent community wishes to maximize its creative potential. New developments in the fields of anthropic self-selection and physical eschatology give solid foundations to such a conclusion. This may open some new (and possibly urgent) issues in the areas of future policy making and transhumanist studies generally. It may also give us a slightly better perspective on the SETI endeavor. Download the PDF
It is argued that astrobiology in general, and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence in particular, are of foremost importance for the transhumanist endeavor. It is sketched how one can show incompleteness, at best, of the arguments usually cited in support of the uniqueness of human intelligence in the Galactic context. In addition to the arguments conventionally cited in support of SETI, and which can be easily cast in the form in which their significance for the future of humanity is manifest, a specific class of phase-transition models of development of complex life and intelligence, suggests another powerful motivation: a very practical issue of strategic information in the great strife for creating values out of the Galactic material resources. Download the PDF
Ancient origins of a modern anthropic argument against cosmologies involving infinite series of past events are considered. It is shown that this argument - which in modern times has been put forward by distinguished cosmologists like Paul C. W. Davies and Frank J. Tipler - originates in pre-Socratic times and is implicitly present in the cyclical cosmology of Empedocles. There are traces of the same line of reasoning throughout the ancient history of ideas, and the case of a provocative statement of Thucydides is briefly analyzed. Moreover, the anthropic argument has been fully formulated in the epic of Lucretius, confirming it as the summit of ancient cosmology. This is not only of historical significance but presents an important topic for the philosophy of cosmology provided some of the contemporary inflationary models, particularly Linde’s chaotic inflation, turn out to be correct. Download the PDF
Cosmology seems extremely remote from everyday human practice and experience. It is usually taken for granted that cosmological data cannot rationally influence our beliefs about the fate of humanity except perhaps in the extremely distant future, when the question of heat death (in an ever-expanding universe) becomes actual. In this note, an attempt is made to show that it may become a practical issue much sooner, if humanity wishes to maximize its creative potential. Newer developments in fields of anthropic self-selection and physical eschatology give solid foundations to such a conclusion. This may open some new (and possibly urgent) issues in areas of future policy making and transhumanist studies generally. Download the PDF
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