The Conversion of a Noted Ostrich

Bjørn Lomborg has apparently changed his mind, and now thinks that global warming is the number one planetary crisis priority.

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Complete entry

Posted by Mike Treder  on  09/02  at  12:48 PM

David is much more optimistic about this than I am.

But if it is true, as he has written elsewhere, that what we are witnessing is “a rhythmic attempted resurgence of oligarchy that arises simply out of human nature,” and that our ancestors successfully “fought down the counter-putsch by oligarchs before,” then we can look forward to—and work toward—an eventual smacking down of the plutocrats who would control and exploit everything, if they could.

Posted by Frank S. Robinson  on  09/02  at  07:03 PM

"But the message of the right wing optimism machine is to claim that foresight and deliberation can ONLY be engaged in by corporate masters."
It is typical, alas, to portray all thinkers on the right as really just flacks for corporate interests. What utter foolishness -- which undermines anything serious you might have to say.
What it is you actually are trying to say here is difficult for me to tease out. It seems to me that you like to idea of a free society -- but not really, because you don't like what it necessarily entails. The problem with critiques of capitalism like this is that they fail to offer the remotest idea of an alternative system that would actually produce better results in the real world.
Those interested in Ridley's very good book might also wish to know about another one (mine), THE CASE FOR RATIONAL OPTIMISM (Transaction Books, Rutgers University, 2009), which makes quite similar points and arguments, but develops the case for optimism over a rather broader range of subject areas. See http://www.fsrcoin.com/k.htm

Posted by veronica  on  09/03  at  07:10 AM

"But the message of the right wing optimism machine..."

Mr. Brin, just wonderin': are you referring to their optimism in general or their optimism just with respect to global warming? Because I've found that with respect to certain other issues, the left are optimistic and the right are pessimistic.

Posted by Summerspeaker  on  09/03  at  10:42 PM

"Prof. Steven Pinker already has made it abundantly and decisively clear that humanity is now experiencing unprecedentedly-low levels of violence, per capita, compared to any time in (or before) history."

It's awfully premature to declare victory for progress. Putting aside violence for a moment, the best anthropological evidence shows that civilization has only produced better health outcomes for the majority of people within the last century or two. See Health and the Rise of Civilization by Mark Nathan Cohen. Hobbes was in fact speaking only for his social class when he vilified the state of nature; the seventeenth-century masses actually lived worse than their primitive ancestors.

Furthermore, Pinker's argument about present-day peace leaves much to be desired. The figure of 20-60% of tribal populations dying in warfare is utterly unbelievable. This statistic, if it has any basis at all, must come from modern studies of hunter-gatherer societies. As Robin Hansen has noted, surviving hunter-gatherers exist in a different context from their ancient cousins and this likely causes more bloodshed than happened in the past. The overall data suggest a moderate level of violence among prehistoric humans; Cohen writes that the shift to civilization had no clear effect on traumatic death either way. Pinker's baseline stands too high and this flaw distorts his entire analysis.

Homicide rates certainly appear lower now than ever before, but mass violence complicates the picture. The grand percentage of the species intentionally killed may indeed have been lower in the twentieth century compared with the historical high score. World War II removed 2-4% of the involved population while the Thirty Years' War and the Mongol conquest of China wiped out 15-30%. If you find that encouraging, remember that a bit of misfortune during the Cold War could have handily set a brand new record. That danger remains with us today. War in the Atomic Age has novel binary quality.

Pinker espouses exactly the sort of simplistic, self-congratulatory progress narrative Philippe Verdoux argues against in "Transhumanism, Progress and the Future." It's essential for transhumanists to realize the dubious foundations for these claims. Civilization has been a profoundly mixed bag.

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