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There’s More to Singularity Studies Than Kurzweil
I’m finding myself a bit disturbed these days about how fashionable it has become to hate Ray Kurzweil - because it’s not all about Ray.
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COMMENTS
Posted by C. on 08/27 at 12:01 PM
Excellent article, well-stated points.
Two minor spelling corrections:
Singuarlity -> Singularity
Marin Rees -> Martin Rees
Posted by Mike Treder on 08/27 at 12:05 PM
Thanks for catching the typos, which have been corrected. 
Posted by billmerit on 08/27 at 03:14 PM
Forget it.
I can't hate all those poeple.
Posted by John Newbury on 08/28 at 04:36 AM
Do people tend to hate Kurzweil - or just the Singularity idea, which he has investigated in most detail and most promoted? Anyway, only the idea is important.
I know little of Kurzweil's personality, but he is certainly genius. Nevertheless, I think he is misguided if he is betting his shirt on an imminent singularity, or even getting close in his lifetime - surely not enough to provide his hoped-for immortality, &c.
When computing is no bottleneck - already plenty for most of its originally envisaged purposes - other bottlenecks will surely emerge, as they always have in the past. Consider weather or climate prediction. Suppose that, for trivial cost, we can do almost perfect simulations, including repeating them, even billions of times, so that we have accurate estimates of errors. Given their chaotic nature, there will still be very large errors - maybe not much better than today - unless we can dramatically improve physical sampling, especially number of spatial points. The bottleneck to progress will then be in sensors and their deployment. Even if they, too, improve at an exponential of an exponenential rate, their rates may be many orders of magnitude slower than computing to date, which is surely exceptional, e.g., compared to transport.
If or when the bottleneck to progress is not sensors and their deployment, it would surely be something else. If not technological, then maybe social. How about political bottlenecks? Progress there seems little better than linear; maybe already close to its zenith! 
Posted by CygnusX1 on 08/28 at 05:36 AM
It may be true that some anxieties have perhaps lead to frustrations that progress appears to be slow and not as fast as we wish, (although this is not really the case). Moreover, everyone expects Kurzweil to always have something new to offer, and so criticise his recent presentations as "heard it all before"? Yet a good salesman should maybe always have at least something a little new to offer? However, in reaching wider audiences restating his ideas is absolutely necessary. He has been criticised most recently regarding his speculations for reverse engineering the human brain, which I feel has been rather harsh, yet I would like to hear more of his views on tapping solar energy and transforming these ideas into reality?
Great article and thanks for the info.
Posted by Big Wave Dave on 08/28 at 12:16 PM
What a great post. For the record, I am doing a documentary on the singularity and approached Ray, as best I could, only to be rebuffed through his staff. His own new documentary, which I have not seen but am looking forward to seeing, may explain that, but the point is the same--- are we talking about a description of a natural phenomenon, like a hurricane, or talking about the many strategies people have concocted to benefit from it?
Ray excels at self promotion and benefiting from the concept (I bought some vitamins from him myself) but that has nothing to do with the hurricane-- that's like selling flashlights because you know a hurricane is coming. That is what I think most people resent about Ray.
And most of the others noted here are not in the game to promote themselves or make a dollar from it-- they are scientists who are studying the hurricane coming.
Also-- you are spot on regarding the varying "point"of the singularity-- is it when computers are smarter than humans (I think Ray leans this way) or when our life expectancy exceeds the passage of time (life expectancy rises 1.1 years in a year) and we reach "immortality"? Based on the stock market, one could say the singularity for planet earth is already happening in financial terms, certainly, we're on the "knee".
Anyway, won't ramble on-- great post, great comments, keep it coming. I wish I knew how to drop my trailer on this post, but give it a search and you'll find it--
Posted by TransAlchemy on 08/29 at 09:11 AM
Regardless of the outcome, let’s make a discovery.
Amen!
Now I wish people where more open minded of all the possibilities that exist out there in the vast ocean of information.
Posted by Valkyrie Ice on 08/29 at 11:38 AM
I have always argued for defining the Singularity as the point at which predictive models fail because of the discovery or invention of something which alters the developmental path of humanity in ways that no-one "pre-singularity" could anticipate or predict.
Fire was one such Singularity, as was language, agriculture, writing, the printing press and the Industrial Revolution. We stated a Singularity with the invention of Computers, which is still ongoing, and we are heading into another one this decade as many other technologies begin matureing, such as VR, THz computers, Bioprinting, and numerous other developments, all tied directly into steadily increasing computer power accelerating knowledge acquisition.
And this will lead to many of those other "Singularities" mentioned above.
Many people think Ray is too optimistic, but I don't, mainly because I am not looking at a few "strong" developments, like AI, Robotics, Genetics or Nanotech, I am looking at ten million "weak" developments that are racing at us at breakneck speed, and will change the world in ways that we can barely begin to imagine.
For example, I recently wrote a article for H_ magazine on the potential use of Quantum Dots to create displays that are capable of being a display and a camera simultaneously, with individual pixels smaller than the human eye can discern, and how with the "liquid ink" technologies DOW is using to "print" OLED screens, such Camera/Displays could be applied to nearly any surface, providing us the ability to dictate an object's appearance as easily as you can in a VR world like SecondLife.
But such a display could also grant us such "superpowers" as invisibility, IR and UV vision, Lidar vision, not to mention enable fully immersive VR/AR displays
Compared to "A.I." it's not as "big" but it's going to make enormous changes to our day to day reality, and it's just one of millions of small advances that add up to a tsunami of changes over the next decade.
So, while I respect Ray, I can't call him an optimist, and to be honest, I think he's focused so much attention on the "long range final results" that he's made too many people ignore the "short term developmental steps" that lead to the long range final results
Posted by DCWhatthe on 08/30 at 09:42 AM
The public is fickle, and always has been. And when they get impatient or disillusioned, it's always easier to find a single figure to place the blame. Ray is one of the best-known transhumanist prognosticators, so he automatically gets the scorn.
Posted by Khannea Suntzu on 08/31 at 12:22 PM
I most certainly do not hate Kurzweil, but I did post some virulent criticisms of his. Ray is losing track in some key important areas, and that is not the acuity of his vision (the guy is on track for a Nobel prize) .
Rather I am bothered by his annoying monotone style. This is an exercise in alienating people. It is frankly stupid and offensive. You can argue I am debating the choice of his tie, but I do take offense. Ray's choice affect us all. What he does affects us all. If he acts like a buffoon on stage and sooner or later becomes a punchline drum-roll joke, over something he could have done something about ....
If he hired a press agent and a somewhat competent stand-up comedian in time (about a year ago) and polished up his presentation then I would have breathed safer by now. But this is an accident waiting to happen, mark my words.
Ray should be more... entertaining.... get more diverse material...
Posted by Dick Pelletier on 08/31 at 02:04 PM
Though I quote Kurzweil often in my newspaper column, I think he does weak interviews and often speaks defensively even when he's not being attacked.
Also, announcing that he gulps down over 200 pills daily in order to extend his life turns off many. At 79 years of age, I have a life extension program that with any luck, could keep me patched up until tomorrow's technologies can give me a boost.
However, I respect the guy and wish him the best.
Posted by Khannea Suntzu on 08/31 at 05:54 PM
What ray's personal lifestyle choices are are NONE of my business. His choice in intake, his sexual preferences, his clothes style, even his presentation - seriously it is none of my business. He stays the main icon of this movement, the main spokesperson of this movement and one the visionaries of this day and age. And yes, he is due for a nobel prize, if he survives for 20 odd years. So his chances are fair for fortune and glory.
But what will is the practical reality? The practical reality is he alienates people. Ray is a perfectionist - and it isn't just one person saying this - I have heard this from five people now. In one case I overheard a phone call I was NOT supposed to overheard between someone who worked with him, and someone else and OH boy - it may be private information, but people don't like the guy close up. he has a serious likeability problem going on. Of course, again, this is none of my business. And I am being rude and invasive and I should keep my incensitive big mouth shut.
But I am just speculating creatively here. It's a matter of time before someone imitiates and persiflages him. Look at the guy. He is an accident waiting to happen and he is precisely the kind of ivory tower intellectual that will respond with the kind of utter confused bewilderment we have seen so often often of apparatchniks when taken apart publicly. He'll just stare and '' but ... but...but'
I certainly didn't miss it when in the last installment of The Hulk they needed a 'mad, manic, irresponsible scientist' and they clearly were influenced by... someone...
http://www.squaremans.com/images/Hulk2.4.jpg
remember him? Mister blue... seriously...
http://machineslikeus.com/images/people/de-garis_hugo.jpg
There is something subconscious at work here. I hope. What happen if this becomes conscious? What happens if the stand up comedians start doing this intentionally? Ray has a bullseye painted on his head.
Posted by Noob on 08/31 at 10:09 PM
I wish more of use were as dedicated, smart, and productive Individuals as Raymond... but instead we're just... inconsequential.
May he outlive us all.
Posted by Khannea Suntzu on 09/01 at 01:02 AM
Of course. Ray will one day be prosper and be happy and a respected monarch on Moon, at the Kurzweil solar sytem university of Galactic progress and Humanity, Professor, at a ripe young age of 1680, before he retires from his seat to migrate to beta cassiopeia.
No and that was no sarcastic. This man, if he lives - wont go away. He is 100% right and worthy of love and adoration. But damn, a LOT can happen until then, and a lot can go wrong before then. Please wake up and be a bit proactive.
Posted by Valkyrie Ice on 09/01 at 12:20 PM
@Khannea
I wrote Ray not to long ago to discuss how VR should have been mentioned far more prominently as it was going to be the "next major development" that would fuel the development of GN and R, and got a "I mentioned it here and here and here" When I wrote back to explain why it deserved far more than just "oh yeah and there will be VR" mention, I got ignored.
I've also sought to ask Ray for his views on the development of THz computers and whether they affected his timeline predictions for computing power, as based on current graphene research it seems likely we will see THz computers this decade, a multi order of magnitude jump that far exceeds the "Moore's Law" curve, but also was ignored.
Posted by Khannea Suntzu on 09/01 at 01:54 PM
I am not proposing rebellion against Ray. Ray is not our King or Priest or Savior. He is a mortal, fallible human being doing a difficult split between verifiable science and speculative media. He is just vulnerable and exposed.
I am not proposing making him more exposed. If anything he needs support and hints and help. I just hope he is smart enough to see his flaws, but I fear he is missing some of them.
And me, I am myself so riddled with flaws and am the LAST person to lead crusades or challenge or accuse. Only thing I can morally do is express concern. That's all. Maybe some distaste.
That is all I will say about it.
Posted by Dan Dascalescu on 10/05 at 04:29 AM
One more typo: "I. G. Good" -> "I. J. Good"
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