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Five Major Changes to American Life By 2020
My response to a journalist’s inquiry about what I thought the five biggest changes would be in American life and society between now and 2020.
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Posted by Tom Huffman on 05/23 at 01:47 PM
A few points: First, some of the changes you mentioned are already happening. There are surveys that show that there are a number of older Americans (65+) still in the work force. Most of the surveys I've seen indicate that a large percentage of the Baby Boom generation plan to work, at least part time, after 65. Sometimes that's because they want to remain active; more often it's out of necessity.
That's been increased by the economic meltdown! Pensions have been largely replaced by 401K savings plans. With the collapse of the market, that 401K is more like a '201K'. Even companies that have old-fashioned defined benefit pension plans are underfunding them, so workers are likely to get much less.
Actually, I haven't been fond of the idea of 'retirement' since I heard a retiring engineer say: "What wine goes with dog food?" This was a guy with a pension!
As for "the growing realization that radical life extension is possible," this is going to put a lot of stress on American society when people realize that the rich are going to live for centuries - and they still can't afford to see a doctor! More surveys: more and more people are saying they can't afford to see a doctor for routine illnesses. That's due both to the rising cost of health care and our current recession / depression / total f***ing economic collapse.
I know a brave lady who took care of her husband during his last illness, and had to endure a painful attack of diverticulitis without medical care - while she was still caring for her husband. I know a young man who may lose the use of his right hand because he didn't have medical insurance and couldn't afford to see a doctor.
I have some hopes for real health care reform from this current administration; but, the odds are that Big Pharma and DenialCare (The big 'health' insurance companies) will work their will on Capitol Hill - again!
As for that 'Third Trend' - we're already seeing major structural unemployment as a result of the offshoring of jobs and downsizing in general; all this cuts costs and increases corporate profits while increasing unemployment and misery. Technology has been playing a part in that since the late '80s. The first big wave of 'downsizing' largely hit the middle management people who were made redundant by computers.
Be very careful about invoking the 'retraining workers' mantra as a palliative. Every time that's brought up in an online discussion, someone replies: "Retraining for what?" Retraining doesn't do a lot of good when there just aren't jobs to be had.
Right now, people are mostly blaming offshoring and corporate greed for the loss of jobs; but, there is a big danger of a wave of neo-ludditism when technology becomes a bigger factor. Add in the rage they'll feel when they start hearing about the wonders of life extension (for the very affluent) when simple medical care is becoming a matter of: "If you have to ask, you can't afford it!"
Yes, "the rapid acceleration and completely unpredictable cross-fertilization of technologies" will play a major role in determining our future; however, right now the biggest factor is the growing concentration of wealth among an uber-rich class - the 'Plutonomy' and shrinking wealth among the rest of us. If that continues unchecked, we're going to be living in a cyberpunk dystopia with corporations and the big rich owning everything.
I don't think that's inevitable, and, this isn't coming from a luddite! I was a senior associate member of the Foresight Institute, and a member of the National Space Institute for years. I consider myself a technoprogressive; but, first of all, I consider myself a progressive. And yes, you can read that as "Liberal!"
Posted by Silan on 07/23 at 01:34 PM
I plan to retire from the military by 2030. Then I'll have money for all the cybernetic parts I could ever want.
Posted by alexxarian on 02/04 at 06:04 PM
I put my hopes in Kolak's Open Individualism (for the left-brainers) and spirituality (integral thought, New Age and progressive versions of religion, for right-brainers) induced mass ego death, which, assuming we survive through it, will lead to unimagined compassion, empathy and love, and a completely changed perception of reality. It's either that, dystopia, annihilation or assimilation by the AI, the last one not being much different from the first one in the long run, but it may appear aesthetically unpleasant to us if the AI chose to disregard our short term subjective experiences. The time for 'mass enlightenment' is drawing near.
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