21st Century Threats

It’s useful to classify threats to human civilization not only on their potential severity, but also on their relative certainty.

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Complete entry

Posted by Carl Shulman  on  11/10  at  09:10 PM

For further reading, some of the most relevant books for application of cost-benefit analysis to global risks include: Cass Sunstein's "Worst-Case Scenarios," Richard Posner's "Catastrophe: Risk and response," and Bostrom and Cirkovic's "Global Catastrophic Risks."

For comparing extinction-level disasters vs less severe ones (although lesser disasters can increase the risk of further disasters and extinction by reducing resilience, so the distinction is quantitative), I recommend Jason Matheny and Nick Bostrom:

http://jgmatheny.org/matheny_extinction_risk.htm
http://www.nickbostrom.com/astronomical/waste.html

Posted by ateologu  on  11/25  at  02:53 PM

I could've sworn. "Climate change" (for the catastrophic, of course) -> "high certainty". Way to go, Mr. Non-Scientist, repeat this lie over and over and physical reality will eventually bow to your will. )

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