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Will you live to see the 22nd century?
Unless you were born about five minutes ago (in which case you’re probably not reading this article), odds are that in 90 years you will not still be alive, based on current life expectancy figures. But could something happen between now and then to give you a chance, no matter how old you are today?
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COMMENTS
Posted by deia on 07/10 at 05:51 PM
Yes, as an uploaded personality on a computer.
...it's my dream...
Posted by Jason William Davis on 07/10 at 10:18 PM
Yes, through temporal engineering.
Posted by Valkyrie Ice on 07/10 at 10:38 PM
As a member of the Immortality Institute I certainly intend to be here in 2100, and 3000, and 30000 right on til the heat death of this universe, by which time I plan to have found a way to move to another.
Posted by m1k3y on 07/11 at 04:39 AM
Yes, through the success of radical life extension measures.
Posted by mjgeddes on 07/11 at 06:47 AM
Expect? No. Hope? Of course there is always hope.
I'd say that someone between the ages of 0-20 might have a decent crack at it. Let's say a 20 year old alive today might have a 50% chance.
What of someone my age? (38). I've calculated my odds and give myself about a 31% chance.
For a realistic chance that the technologies mentioned can be developed, super-intelligence is surely needed. I assume that if super-intelligence is developed and is friendly, I will live. My calculations are based on this premise:
Chance that super-intelligence is developed before my death (est 40 years): 50%
Chance that super-intelligence is friendly when developed: 50%
If super-intelligence is not developed within 40 years, chance that I live through the 40 years, society is not disrupted by some disaster or another, and I am successfully cryonically suspended: 20%
Chance that if cryonically suspended, I will be successfully revived: 20%
About a 25% chance of success with super-intelligence (0.5*0.5), and only about a 6% chance for the back-up plan of cryonics (0.2*0.2).
Posted by Aleksei Riikonen on 07/11 at 08:10 AM
I haven't ever properly thought about this question, not important enough. (Not even from the point of view of personal survival, since I anyway should be putting effort towards increasing my chances.)
So it seems my answer is "No", since not having any real opinion on the subject means that I do not "expect to be alive" at the mentioned point in time (though similarly, I don't expect to be dead either).
Posted by Frank Glover on 07/11 at 10:18 AM
Yes, through radical life-extension measures. Already making the best use I can of current and new knowledge. But as I tell friends in my age range (I'm 56), we're probably on the ragged edge. Those much older probably won't make it, those much younger, probably will.
Though we could end up among the oldest people on Earth, if we do. (Or have the dubious distinction of just *barely* missing the train, if not.)
I'm willing to go the cryonics route as well, but it's financially out of my reach...might consider some even more speculative, but lower-cost preservation options.
In the meantime, do what you would essentially do anyway...try not to die.
Posted by Aleksei Riikonen on 07/11 at 10:34 AM
mjgeddes, your calculation contains several elementary mathematical errors. (Not that I'd take seriously the rest of it.)
First of all, 0.2*0.2 is not "about 6%", but instead 4%.
Second, you can't just add that 4% (or "about 6%", if we leave the first error uncorrected) to the 25%. You first need to multiply it by 0.5, which is the probability you gave for superintelligence not being developed, i.e. the probability you would die without the back-up plan working.
So if you think your probability premises are correct, you should think you have a 27% chance.
Posted by Valkyrie Ice on 07/11 at 12:59 PM
Let me repost this from a recent discussion on Imminst:
I DO think that some forms of rejuvenation tech will be available by the late to mid 20s, even if "immortality" hasn't yet been achieved.
Why? Because based on current trends in stem cell research I can quite easily see stem cells becoming a "shortcut" to medical nanobots within 20 years.
Think about it. A medical nanobot ala "Engines of Creation" or Freitas's "Nanomedicine" is actually rather less sophisticated than a stemcell, which can not only become ANY CELL in the human body, it is already fully programmed to do all sorts of repairs.
We've already created bacteria with small remote controls, and we are daily learning how to do more and more with stem cells, from bone repair to tooth replacement to tissue repair, and even as the prime component in 3d tissue printers. We've learned how to revert adult stem cells to embryonic states, and are making progress in learning how to "program" stem cells to do specific tasks. Put all that together and it should be easy to see that we could in the near future basically begin using stem cells as a universal "cure all", especially combined with the increasing knowledge we are gaining in genetic manipulation and the strong likelihood of massively increased speed computers and massively smaller ones made of graphene. A computer controlled stem cell could become a standard medical "miracle" by decades end.
All of which says to me that we may not NEED as sophisticated a level of technology as is currently assumed needed to provide very real rejuvenation therapies, not to mention such other "outrageous" possibilities as my personal quest for succubushood.
Posted by Shanee Nishry on 07/11 at 01:10 PM
Can only hope that one of the possibilities following "Yes" will work to save me and my boyfriend (and more)... but I can't say I am optimistic, even though we are both at the age of 21.
Oh, and I am not so sure if I give the "Yes, as a disembodied spirit in the afterlife." option any chance at all :/ Although it could have been nice...
I am always curious how people much older than me have such optimistic feelings about this.. I am hoping that it means that I am just pessimistic but then I get to think "Well, I'd want to convince myself too." :/ death sucks. We can beat it, quite easily too. Problem is mostly humans and their choices, not the possibility.
Posted by Dr John Anderson on 07/11 at 01:35 PM
I am cautiously optimistic because at the current rate of progress which is incomparable to anything we have ever seen before we should be capable of adding 25-30 years within the next 25 years. To get this in perspective just consider that in the nineteenth century more technological breakthroughs were made than in all of the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century combined. In this century we will almost certainly achieve 1000 times more than we achieved in the whole 20th century. Based on this I am pretty confident that as long as we achieve the first breakthrough within 50 years large numbers of people alive today will make it tosee the fireworks at the beginning of the 22nd century.
An essential prerequisite to rapid progress is radical life extension are advances in Biotechnology and Nanotechnology and both are progressing very quickly with Biotec is ahead of Nanotec by around 10 to 15 years although the gap seems to be closing in the last 18 months with Nanotec rapidly picking up momentum. To grasp the potential for radial life ewxtension we need to consider that we are already adding two months each year to our life expectancy and this has been consistent for the last thirty years or so. If you then consider that many experts see a better than 50% chance of controlling aging within 30 years the whole issue starts to become very interesting. Regardless I believe that a cure is at least 100 years away.
There is however the shortcut (the engineering approach to remove accumulated damage) which has been set out by Dr Aubrey de Grey which aims to render aging a treatable condition albeit a chronic one, this is quite possibly within striking distance. I also agree with some of the postings above because there are a number of routes to reach that crucial first step of adding 25 or 30 years of extra life and only one needs to succeed in order to buy time until the next step which adds a further 25 to 30 years. Advances in Robotics are crucial should biological intervention fail and we are forced down the memory upload route.
In my opinion progress at the moment is starting to look positive. To see the evidence of where we are going check out the links below:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q4qwLknKag
http://asimo.honda.com/InsideAsimo.aspx
http://mashable.com/2010/04/15/nasa-robonaut2/
As far as combating aging I recommend checking out a few of my links from my files and also Aubrey de Grey at the URL at the bottom. Add all this together and it starts to suggest we are on course because all of the requisite technologies are improving at an exponential rate.
Stem Cell Progress Regarding Joints http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnCnq6UHzIM&feature=player_embedded
Age Reveral Confirmed in Stem Cells http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/04/biotime-reverses-aging-of-human-cells.html
Promising Potential Breakthrough regarding muscle loss (main cause of falls etc in the elderly) http://www.physorg.com/news193913231.html
Progress in Gene Therapy to target cancer http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2010/04/an-impressive-demonstration-of-targeted-cancer-destruction.php
THIS IS THE Dr Aubrey de Grey video
http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/retirement/news-and-features/content.aspx?ID=399808&Page=3
Posted by Seth on 07/11 at 01:57 PM
Yes, via all of the above methods, as I decide to adopt them.
Posted by Dr John Anderson on 07/11 at 02:29 PM
I am cautiously optimistic because at the current rate of progress which is incomparable to anything we have ever seen before we should be capable of adding 25-30 years within the next 25 years. To get this in perspective just consider that in the nineteenth century more technological breakthroughs were made than in all of the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century combined. In this century we will almost certainly achieve 1000 times more than we achieved in the whole 20th century. Based on this I am pretty confident that as long as we achieve the first breakthrough within 50 years large numbers of people alive today will make it tosee the fireworks at the beginning of the 22nd century.
An essential prerequisite to rapid progress is radical life extension are advances in Biotechnology and Nanotechnology and both are progressing very quickly with Biotec is ahead of Nanotec by around 10 to 15 years although the gap seems to be closing in the last 18 months with Nanotec rapidly picking up momentum. To grasp the potential for radial life ewxtension we need to consider that we are already adding two months each year to our life expectancy and this has been consistent for the last thirty years or so. If you then consider that many experts see a better than 50% chance of controlling aging within 30 years the whole issue starts to become very interesting. Regardless I believe that a cure is at least 100 years away.
There is however the shortcut (the engineering approach to remove accumulated damage) which has been set out by Dr Aubrey de Grey which aims to render aging a treatable condition albeit a chronic one, this is quite possibly within striking distance. I also agree with some of the postings above because there are a number of routes to reach that crucial first step of adding 25 or 30 years of extra life and only one needs to succeed in order to buy time until the next step which adds a further 25 to 30 years. Advances in Robotics are crucial should biological intervention fail and we are forced down the memory upload route.
In my opinion progress at the moment is starting to look positive. To see the evidence of where we are going check out the links below:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q4qwLknKag
http://asimo.honda.com/InsideAsimo.aspx
http://mashable.com/2010/04/15/nasa-robonaut2/
As far as combating aging I recommend checking out a few of my links from my files and also Aubrey de Grey at the URL at the bottom. Add all this together and it starts to suggest we are on course because all of the requisite technologies are improving at an exponential rate.
Stem Cell Progress Regarding Joints http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnCnq6UHzIM&feature=player_embedded
Age Reveral Confirmed in Stem Cells http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/04/biotime-reverses-aging-of-human-cells.html
Promising Potential Breakthrough regarding muscle loss (main cause of falls etc in the elderly) http://www.physorg.com/news193913231.html
Progress in Gene Therapy to target cancer http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2010/04/an-impressive-demonstration-of-targeted-cancer-destruction.php
THIS IS THE Dr Aubrey de Grey video
http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/retirement/news-and-features/content.aspx?ID=399808&Page=3
Posted by Tom Huffman on 07/11 at 03:50 PM
This survey might have been more informative if you had focused on probabilities rather than life extension / cryonics / uploading. I would have to say that my chances of living long enough for life extension would be very low, since I'm in my mid 60's. I wouldn't completely rule it out; but, the chances would be vanishing small.
Posted by Greycat on 07/11 at 10:32 PM
I find mind uploading an interesting fantasy that could be horrible or wonderful, though more likely the former, at least at first. However, I do not really believe in it.
I hope for advanced medicine and life extension technologies, which seem far more likely to me. However, I don't think they'll get good enough fast enough for me to live one hundred thirty-five years. Finally, I don't have an immortalist mindset and intend, if I'm physically able, to increase my exposure to certain health risks when my children are old enough my demise, though it would hurt them, would not be utterly destructive.
Posted by postfuturist on 07/12 at 09:47 PM
To be a champion of the obvious: it appears some of those alive today will live forever, but not necessarily ANYONE on this blog.
Posted by Paul on 07/14 at 11:55 AM
You forgot or perhaps haven't heard about the possibility of 'quantum immortality'. This is to do with the idea of parallel universes. Basically when we die the idea is that the universe we live in splits into one where we died and one where we live on (Wikipedia has a good article on it) and this happens again and again and again (and not just to cowards) until according to the horribly pessimistic theory going the rounds we are 'screaming quantum brains' floating alone in dead universes for all eternity (everyone, regardless of how they lived). But new arguments are developing that on probability we would find ourselves in a universe where our bodies are revived in cryonic hospitals and we would then gain immortality. If however, Ray Kurweil's ideas have any validity we would eventually find ourselves in Singularities and go on forever in extremely pleasant circumstances. Well, we can always hope ...
Posted by postfuturist on 07/14 at 06:33 PM
Paul, IMO it is too mind-boggling for most laymen to absorb to the degree that the ramifications are clearly understood.
Posted by Ilia Stambler on 07/16 at 02:12 AM
Rather than expect, I do hope life-extending measures will arrive in time.
Chances for cryonic resurrection or mind-uploading seem to be much lower than for life-extension technologies, and chances for an afterlife are unknowable.
I strongly believe in the progress of life-extension measures and in the necessity of advocacy for that purpose. But I think that we do not always realize (or wish to realize) the immense complexities involved in developing and applying such technologies. I wish it were as simple as plugging in new stem cells in place of the old ones. But we will probably need to determine first how such replacements will affect the homeostasis of the entire body. Otherwise we may be boosting one system, while deregulating all the others. Most practical life-extension methods suggested so far - hormones, anti-oxidants, stem-cells - haven't been particularly effective, perhaps for this very reason. We just don't know how these interventions will act in the long run or interact with the rest of the body. And this is a computational problem nothing short of a singularity-level super-intelligence. I think we need to recognize the complexity, just for the sake of developing real life-extending measures. I do hope the search will be successful.
Posted by Master Bulder on 08/05 at 07:37 AM
Yes, as an uploaded personality on a computer....I Plan To LIVE Forever
Posted by Robert Ritter on 09/06 at 03:31 PM
Even if we are able to live such an extended period of time, as the question proposes,.....
who the hell would want to!!? With our super over population exploding as I write this letter to you, our environment on a free for all spiral fall, wildlife not having witness such complete decimation, since 65,000,000 years ago, world wide food shortage, water quality poor throughout, political and human upheaval, mini - wars breaking out everywhere, guaranteed to get worse (again due mostly to human over population), energy crisis, world wide financial depression as we are already witnessing...guranteed to get worse, where would be the incentive to only see this continue on, and in the furture... even more so?!!
Sorry for the run-on sentence.
Posted by postfuturist on 09/07 at 10:34 PM
Robert, agreed, you don't want to be a Dr. Pangloss telling us, "this is the best of all possible worlds;" However you also don't want to be a Paul Ehrlich bleating "the sky is falling, the sky is falling." There is a modus vivendi. Personally, I don't think there will be a worldwide food shortage; when it comes to food, the situation might be more like overproduction and trade wars. I really don't know-- but neither do you.
Posted by lindsey on 03/27 at 08:05 AM
Yes through reincarnation, i want to be born in 81 again and live as a teen in the 90's again. I will come back as chinese and next time around i want to be a boy.
Something odd has already happened, just after writing this i moved the page down to submit it and noticed one of those little boxes that asks you to enter some letters. Mine reads fine81 !!
Posted by postfuturist on 03/27 at 02:28 PM
Nostalgia is as legitimate an escape as any; as much as religion, alcohol & drugs... anything. At any rate, overall, in a global, nebulous (e.g. futurist) sense things ARE improving. One can say for sure violence is diminishing, such is the bright spot. Beyond that, one would want to be a scientist to discuss climate change, threat of pandemics, solar eruptions, all the rest of the laundry list of negativity obsessed on by nattering nabobs of negativism. Effete corps of impudent snobs 
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