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A Tale of Two Earthquakes
Mike Treder
Ethical Technology
Posted: Feb 27, 2010
Lessons we can learn from recent disasters in Haiti and in Chile.
Can earthquakes be predicted?
Not yet, or certainly not very reliably.
Can earthquakes be prevented?
No, not for a very long time to come, unless you are a completely unrealistic techno-fantasist.
Can earthquake damage and death tolls be minimized?
Yes, absolutely.
That is the biggest lesson to come out of these two very recent cataclysms. One was quite powerful and brought an immense amount of destruction and suffering; the other was far more powerful but caused considerably less destruction and suffering.
Why such a big difference? The obvious answer is preparation.
The location of the first earthquake, Haiti, is a place where the government is unstable and ineffective, poverty is rampant, and building codes are nearly nonexistent.
Chile, on the other hand, has a much higher functioning economy, and although they have also had to deal with significant government instability and corruption, their infrastructure is way more advanced than Haiti’s, with building codes designed to prevent major collapses due to earthquakes.
As New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof said on his Facebook page today:
The Chile and Haiti earthquakes remind us that it’s not just natural disasters that kill, but also poverty. So many died in Haiti because many homes were cheap and fragile. Chile is far better off and though the quake magnitude was much greater, casualties may be fewer.
So, what is most needed to reduce suffering and minimize the loss of life in the wake of major natural disasters is both technology and ethics. Not fancy new emerging technologies, but basic old-fashioned technologies like reinforced concrete and deep foundations. And applied ethics that can stabilize governments, strengthen economies, and raise more people out of poverty.
It’s really not very complicated. But it’s also not always easy to implement. Still, when we get an object lesson as we have in these two very recent earthquakes, we should be smart and learn from it.
Mike Treder is the Managing Director of the IEET, and former Executive Director of the non-profit Center for Responsible Nanotechnology.
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Zack • Okinawa • Feb 28, 2010
The 7.0 earthquake that happened here in Oki pretty much proves this. Okinawa is built for tsunamis and earthquakes. Concrete buildings and such... and there was very light damage.
@ Mike
Apart from stating the obvious and regarding political policies, ethics and concrete technologies here's a couple of recent disasters you may wish to contemplate further
September 11 attacks
"Three buildings in the World Trade Center Complex collapsed due to structural failure on the day of the attack. The south tower (2 WTC) fell at approximately 9:59 a.m., after burning for 56 minutes in a fire caused by the impact of United Airlines Flight 175. The north tower (1 WTC) collapsed at 10:28 a.m., after burning for approximately 102 minutes. When the north tower collapsed, debris that fell on the nearby 7 World Trade Center (7 WTC) building damaged it and initiated fires. These fires burned for hours and compromised the buildings structural integrity, which led to the crumbling of the east penthouse at 5:20 p.m. and to the complete collapse of the building at 5:21 p.m"'2,973 victims and the 19 hijackers died as a result of the attacks. The overwhelming majority of casualties were civilians, including nationals of over 90 countries."
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11,_2001_attacks
Hurricane Katrina
"Hurricane Katrina of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the costliest hurricane, as well as one of the five deadliest, in the history of the United States. Among recorded Atlantic hurricanes, it was the sixth strongest overall."' At least 1,836 people lost their lives in the actual hurricane and in the subsequent floods, making it the deadliest U.S. hurricane since the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane." Four years later, thousands of displaced residents in Mississippi and Louisiana were still living in trailers."
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
"The Loma Prieta earthquake, also known as the Quake of '89 and the World Series Earthquake, was a major earthquake that struck the San Francisco Bay Area of California on October 17, 1989, at 5:04 p.m. local time. Caused by a slip along the San Andreas Fault, the temblor lasted 10:15 seconds and measured 6.9 on the moment magnitude scale (surface-wave magnitude 7.1) or 6.9 on the open ended Richter Scale.The quake killed 63 people throughout northern California, injured 3,757 and left some 3,000-12,000 people homeless".
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Loma_Prieta_earthquake
2008 Bay Area Earthquake Probabilities
>> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/ucerf/
@Cygnus: Interesting links, but I'm not sure I get your point. What are you trying to say?
My points are twofold
1. It's not all about earthquakes
2. Both 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, (under the same US administration), leave a lot of unanswered questions regarding political policies, contingencies and ethics and lives lost.
It would be of much more use had you supplied an actual graph. What does this graph tell us? That the writer had a point to make and wouldn't have statistics proving him wrong.
Obviously I could have put numbers on the graphs, something like relative strength, Haiti:Chile = 1:483, and approximate predicted death tolls, Haiti:Chile = 375:1, but would that really have been a great deal more informative?
CygnusX1's comments indicate a lack of understanding of the events he cites.
9/11 could not have been expected and even then the majority of the occupants escaped. Read "109 Minutes" to understand why all did not escape. Interdepartmental communication flaws were exposed by the first Trade Center bombing. The building performed as designed under a larger then anticapated when designed, event.
Katrina was a time bomb just waiting to happen. Old city with old ways and many buyoffs of politicians.
SF, California codes prevented much worse damage and saved lives, just like they did in Northridge. Heads up to the Chilieans for enacting strong codes. Remember that Japan, even with their experience and knowledge suffered severe damage to one of their major cities. Survivability of occupants is the primary issue.
The author misleadingly writes:
"...of these two very recent cataclysms. One was quite powerful and brought an immense amount of destruction and suffering; the other was far more powerful but caused considerably less destruction and suffering"
He thus implies that Haiti was less "powerful." In fact, that's only true at the sub-surface epicenter, NOT where most of the people were, on the surface, miles away.
Depth, distance, and surface structure all are decisive factors in the net power delivered to people in a quake.
Haiti's quake, was only 8 miles below the surface, and less than 20 miles distant from the capital of Port-au-Prince, which sits on an unstable geology that shakes violently in its (extremely rare) major earthquakes (this is the first in over two centuries there).
By comparison, Chile's quake was 21 miles deep (where much of the energy can be absorbed, before reaching the surface), 70 miles distant from the nearest large city, and 200 miles from the capital. Chile's surface geology, too, is much less unstable, and rides out quakes with greater solidity.
A check of commentary by the US Geological Survey should clarify this.
Superior technology -- in buildings, in disaster response, in infrastructure -- do much to explain Chile's much lower death toll, but most Chileans, on the surface, were NOT subject to a "more powerful" shock than most Haitian's in the quake zone.
Other natural factors affecting different death rates include rate of onset (whether the quake was abrubt or gave gradual warnings, allowing people to flee structures), timing (whether it happened when people were indisposed by sleep and dark, or by being caught in more risky structures, for work and school), and weather (extremes of weather, including cold and heat, can affect victim-survival through hypothermia, dehydration and other causes).
On a planet that is vastly bigger and more powerful than any human, or human invention, Mother Nature still is a major player in the outcomes of the tiny creatures on her surface.
@RH - You're right that comparisons between the strengths of the two earthquakes are not as straightforward as comparing Richter ratings. I was a little annoyed when the early news reports, especially in the U.S., trumpeted that the Chile quake was "1000 times" more powerful than Haiti. That amount was misleading and exaggerated.
Since then, I've seen other figures used to compare the relative strengths, like 800 times more powerful, or 550 times, or 483 times. But whatever number you choose, it doesn't change my underlying point: Chile, with a comparatively more stable government, better building codes, and a far more robust economy, was simply better prepared.
He did nothing but whine, cry and curse Bush for not invading to help them out, Obama gets in office and he is silent?
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