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IEET > Security > Eco-gov > Resilience > Vision > Technoprogressivism > Fellows > David Brin

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The Conversion of a Noted Ostrich


David Brin
David Brin
Contrary Brin

Posted: Sep 2, 2010

Bjørn Lomborg has apparently changed his mind, and now thinks that global warming is the number one planetary crisis priority.

Michael Marshall, writing for New Scientist, says:

He’s back and generating as many headlines as ever. After years as the world’s leading climate change critic, “sceptical environmentalistBjørn Lomborg is now saying that we need to put it at the top of our priority list.

book coverWhat’s that, he has a new book out? Indeed, and in Smart Solutions to Climate Change, Lomborg, an adjunct professor at Copenhagen Business School in Denmark, goes so far as to say we should spend $100 billion a year to sort it out.

The Guardian calls it a major U-turn, one “that will give a huge boost to the embattled environmental lobby”.

Richard Loosemore comments: “The last quote from that article pretty much sums it up: ‘Grant him this: Dude knows how to play the media. Who else could get such attention for adopting a position already held by millions of sensible people?’”

By all means use this conversion on your well-educated but obstinate “ostrich-skeptic.” It’s big stuff.

But don’t expect the spin machine to stop turning out bright fools to razzle us and dazzle us with incantations that have one aim… to keep us doing nothing. Take Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist, who offers yet another version of the right wing nostrum that lots of people, interacting freely, will bounce around so many ideas, that solutions to problems will naturally appear (or evolve, like species in nature), leading to better times for all. 

Now, mind you, I absolutely agree with everything I just paraphrased! And much more! For example, Ridley correctly demolishes the opposing foolishness of the left - the insipid pessimism conveyed in liberal-influenced media like the film Avatar - that modern society is somehow worse than cultures that came earlier; more violent, less kindly or thoughtful.

Baloney. (In fact the very ubiquity and success of messages like Avatar is partial disproof of its premise! Think about that.)

Prof. Steven Pinker already has made it abundantly and decisively clear that humanity is now experiencing unprecedentedly-low levels of violence, per capita, compared to any time in (or before) history. Likewise increasing levels of education,  freedom and (yes) ethical behavior. The foolish leftist notion - that we can only continue this progress by chiding people, while frantically ignoring the fact that progress has been made - is certainly insane. It deserves rigorous criticism. 

Nevertheless, the right is far worse. Take the way their fizzy “optimism” arm-wavings start off by reciting truths - e.g., that ideas do breed and evolve among free/educated people… and civilization has thereby moved forward - only then, insidiously, they razzle that basic truth into rationalizations for indolence!

Problems will solve themselves, as if by magic! Ignoring Adam Smith’s cautiously pro-government and anti-oligarchy reasoning, they mis-apply his teachings in order to praise the kind of laissez-faire faith in an “invisible hand” that plays right into the hands of entrenched and conniving oligarchy.

The crux: this fizzing, percolation of ideas and solutions does happen - it can lead to all the great synergies that the optimists proclaim… even the miracle of the runaway positive sum game... the supposed justification of capitalism. On the other hand, this semi-random idea-churn works best when it then feeds into a process called the modern western mixed society, wherein smart men and women in business, the arts, and government compare notes, deliberate, negotiate, plan and bring about solutions to problems!

The usual prescription that lies underneath what Bjørn Lomberg used to teach, and that other court rationalizers continue to foist on us, is that men like Marshall and Acheson and Vennevar Bush - who MADE this modern world - should be ignored in favor of a random boiling of freely-exchanged solutions. But the invisible hand is only a metaphor. Groups of human beings do assess, make, and implement plans. Civil servants and politicians and scientists and citizens can and should play at least as big a role as crony CEO golf buddies.

But the message of the right wing optimism machine is to claim that foresight and deliberation can ONLY be engaged in by corporate masters. Never anybody else. It ignores how much planning and genuine leadership went into making this present world of low violence and rising hope.


David Brin Ph.D. is a scientist and best-selling author whose future-oriented novels include Earth, The Postman, and Hugo Award winners Startide Rising and The Uplift War.
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COMMENTS


David is much more optimistic about this than I am.

But if it is true, as he has written elsewhere, that what we are witnessing is “a rhythmic attempted resurgence of oligarchy that arises simply out of human nature,” and that our ancestors successfully “fought down the counter-putsch by oligarchs before,” then we can look forward to—and work toward—an eventual smacking down of the plutocrats who would control and exploit everything, if they could.



"But the message of the right wing optimism machine is to claim that foresight and deliberation can ONLY be engaged in by corporate masters."
It is typical, alas, to portray all thinkers on the right as really just flacks for corporate interests. What utter foolishness -- which undermines anything serious you might have to say.
What it is you actually are trying to say here is difficult for me to tease out. It seems to me that you like to idea of a free society -- but not really, because you don't like what it necessarily entails. The problem with critiques of capitalism like this is that they fail to offer the remotest idea of an alternative system that would actually produce better results in the real world.
Those interested in Ridley's very good book might also wish to know about another one (mine), THE CASE FOR RATIONAL OPTIMISM (Transaction Books, Rutgers University, 2009), which makes quite similar points and arguments, but develops the case for optimism over a rather broader range of subject areas. See http://www.fsrcoin.com/k.htm



"But the message of the right wing optimism machine..."

Mr. Brin, just wonderin': are you referring to their optimism in general or their optimism just with respect to global warming? Because I've found that with respect to certain other issues, the left are optimistic and the right are pessimistic.



"Prof. Steven Pinker already has made it abundantly and decisively clear that humanity is now experiencing unprecedentedly-low levels of violence, per capita, compared to any time in (or before) history."

It's awfully premature to declare victory for progress. Putting aside violence for a moment, the best anthropological evidence shows that civilization has only produced better health outcomes for the majority of people within the last century or two. See Health and the Rise of Civilization by Mark Nathan Cohen. Hobbes was in fact speaking only for his social class when he vilified the state of nature; the seventeenth-century masses actually lived worse than their primitive ancestors.

Furthermore, Pinker's argument about present-day peace leaves much to be desired. The figure of 20-60% of tribal populations dying in warfare is utterly unbelievable. This statistic, if it has any basis at all, must come from modern studies of hunter-gatherer societies. As Robin Hansen has noted, surviving hunter-gatherers exist in a different context from their ancient cousins and this likely causes more bloodshed than happened in the past. The overall data suggest a moderate level of violence among prehistoric humans; Cohen writes that the shift to civilization had no clear effect on traumatic death either way. Pinker's baseline stands too high and this flaw distorts his entire analysis.

Homicide rates certainly appear lower now than ever before, but mass violence complicates the picture. The grand percentage of the species intentionally killed may indeed have been lower in the twentieth century compared with the historical high score. World War II removed 2-4% of the involved population while the Thirty Years' War and the Mongol conquest of China wiped out 15-30%. If you find that encouraging, remember that a bit of misfortune during the Cold War could have handily set a brand new record. That danger remains with us today. War in the Atomic Age has novel binary quality.

Pinker espouses exactly the sort of simplistic, self-congratulatory progress narrative Philippe Verdoux argues against in "Transhumanism, Progress and the Future." It's essential for transhumanists to realize the dubious foundations for these claims. Civilization has been a profoundly mixed bag.



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