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IEET > Security > Eco-gov > Resilience > Vision > Futurism > Fellows > Jamais Cascio

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How America Will End


Jamais Cascio
Jamais Cascio
Open the Future

Posted: Aug 4, 2009

A week-long thought experiment on the United States’ demise.

Slate‘s Josh Levin kicks off a series of articles on the possible future dissolution of the United States today with a piece about how a few different “futurologists” see the possibility. In “How Is America Going To End?”, he talks to Peter Schwartz, Stewart Brand, and me, discussing the Fifty Year Scenarios I did for the Institute for the Future.

Cascio clearly believes that humanity has the ingenuity and the smarts to beat back threats to its continued existence. He doesn’t, however, assume that the persistence of the United States is necessarily the most-desirable outcome. It’s possible America will collapse as we try desperately to save it—or perhaps the country will shrivel up and go away when its time has come and gone. “It’s not necessarily how America will survive,” Cascio says, “but how do the values we hold dear … survive even if some of the institutions don’t?”

Levin’s series also includes a make-your-own Apocalypse game!


Jamais Cascio is a Senior Fellow of the IEET, and a professional futurist. He writes the popular blog Open the Future.
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COMMENTS


"Cascio clearly believes that humanity has the ingenuity and the smarts to beat back threats to its continued existence. "

What percentage of Americans have to remain (and still consider themselves American) in order for you to consider us having beaten back the threat to our existence?

"perhaps the country will shrivel up and go away when its time has come and gone."

How is that quantified?



Assuming that the United States began with the ratification of the U.S. constitution in 1788, then that makes the country 221 years old. According to Gott's Interval, the U.S. therefore has a 95 percent chance of lasting approximately between another 221/39 = 5.7 years and another 221 X 39 = 8600 years.

People who argue for the dissolution of the U.S. in a handful of years have to justify the assumption that we've made a "something special" observation about the current state of the U.S. which will cause it to cease to exist in our lifetimes, a country that handily survived extremely disruptive events like the Civil War, the Great Depression and the Second World War.

Reference: "If there is nothing special about your observation of something, then there is a 95 per cent chance that you are seeing it during the middle 95 per cent of its observable lifetime, rather than during the first or last 2.5 per cent . At one extreme, the future is only 1/39 as long as the past. At the other, it is 39 times as long. With 95 per cent certainty, this fixes the future longevity of whatever you observe as being between 1/39 and 39 times as long as its past."

http://www.physics.ohio-state.edu/~kagan/holography/AS138/Lectures/Gott-NewScientist.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Richard_Gott



Great video presentation, took some notes wink



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